Originally posted by F Spider
View Post
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
guess the chassis number
Collapse
X
-
... we have quite a few identified, thank you! About half of them!!! To avoid confusion, I have edited my posts and added the most likely chassis numbers identified. Please let me know if I made a mistake. For detectives, the ones still up for a good guess are
number 13, black, CPP, Belgium
number 16, sliver, Karmann, California
number 18, silver, Karmann
number 19, silver, Karmann
number 21, silver, Karmann, Florida
number 26, white, Karmann
number 30, black, Karmann, California
number 31, black, Karmann, California
number 32, black, Karmann, Florida
number 33, black, Karmann, Indiana
number 34, black, Karmann, Florida
number 35, black, Karmann, Florida
number 36, dark, Karmann
number 37, black, Karmann, Florida
number 38, black, Karmann, California
number 39, black, Karmann, Florida
number 40, black, Karmann, Florida
number 44, black, Karmann, Florida
number 45, black, Karmann, Bahrain
number 47, black, Karmann, Luxembourg
number 48, black, Karmann, Austria
number 50, black, Karmann
number 54, dark, Karmann, California
number 55, dark, Karmann, Florida
number 56, dark, Karmann
This list will not be updated. See first post of this thread for potential updates!Last edited by amzamz; 14-02-2015, 06:38.
Comment
-
simple probability and statistics
... let's look just at the Spyker C8 Spyders on the road! It is tempting to do some calculations about VIN numbers and what we have found out so far. It is also possible to make some predictions on what we should still be able to find.
The CPP bodied cars should cover VIN numbers 1-70. We have 6 cars missing. Specifically, that would be #003, #012, #023, #025, #051, and #062. These missing ones are all separated by VINs we know. The probability for that is one in 12, which is compatible with what we find. The probability to find 2 adjacent unknowns would be one in 136, which also is compatible with the fact that we have only 70 numbers. Looking at the overall ratio of Spyders as compared to all Spyker models, we should expect to find 4 out of the 6 missing VINs are actually Spyders! Just guessing. Let's see!
For the Karmann bodied cars we have VIN numbers 80-249. We have 29 cars missing. Mostly, they are separated by known VINs, but we also find 1x 2 adjacent, 2x 3 adjacent, and 1x 5 adjacent missing numbers. The probabilities for 2 adjacent is 1/35, for 3 adjacent 1/205 which both seems compatible with the total number of VINs here. However, the probability for 5 adjacent numbers missing would be one in 7,100. This seems like a systematic gap and I would not expect those cars to exist. Specifically this is #195-199. This is just my speculation!
It looks similar for the "gaps" between CPP, Karmann and Aileron. We have unknown VINs #071-079. That would be 9 adjacent missing, and the probability for that is one in 2.3 Million! This is definitely a set of cars which have not been produced, and I remember several people have actually heard that's true. Now the other area is VINs #245-249, which is 5 adjacent. Calculations based on all 250 Spyker cars produced would give a probability for this at one in 3,500. Again I would conculde that most likely these have not been produced, or at least haven't seen dealers or customers yet! Remember, probability is never giving a 100% confidence on results, but is usually a quite good guess...
Now finally, taking the above into account, we should have 30 missing VIN numbers on our entire list. Assuming it is random what we see and what we don't, the fraction of Spyders would be 119/201. In consequence, we could expect 18 Spyders missing. I counted 16 unidentified VINs for Spyders, and I haven't taken the ones of this thread into account yet. The difference is just 2! That means, we probably have seen almost all Spyker C8 Spyders on the road or in showrooms! I suspect there aren't many Spyders hidden away in a collection, perhaps just around 2 cars!Last edited by amzamz; 14-02-2015, 14:15.
Comment
-
Originally posted by amzamz View Post... we have quite a few identified, thank you! About half of them!!! To avoid confusion, I have edited my posts and added the most likely chassis numbers identified. Please let me know if I made a mistake. For detectives, the ones still up for a good guess are
number 13, black, CPP, Belgium
number 16, sliver, Karmann, California
number 18, silver, Karmann
number 19, silver, Karmann
number 21, silver, Karmann, Florida
number 26, white, Karmann
number 30, black, Karmann, California
number 31, black, Karmann, California
number 32, black, Karmann, Florida
number 33, black, Karmann, Indiana
number 34, black, Karmann, Florida
number 35, black, Karmann, Florida
number 36, dark, Karmann
number 37, black, Karmann, Florida
number 38, black, Karmann, California
number 39, black, Karmann, Florida
number 40, black, Karmann, Florida
number 44, black, Karmann, Florida
number 45, black, Karmann, Bahrain
number 47, black, Karmann, Luxembourg
number 48, black, Karmann, Austria
number 50, black, Karmann
number 54, dark, Karmann, California
number 55, dark, Karmann, Florida
number 56, dark, Karmann
This list will not be updated. See first post of this thread for potential updates!
Your probability analysis in today's posting was very informative. In that regard, it appears that there are a relatively large number of black Spykers in Florida as compared to the overall Spyker population in other states. As a result, I guess it is possible that several of the black Spykers in Florida are actually one and the same car, even though they have different license plate numbers. For example, pics number 34 & 35 have different license plates, but right below the plate on each car appears to be an ever so slight inscription or blemish above the circular part of the aluminum diffuser that hangs down and covers the transaxle housing. This may be just an anomaly, a product of my imagination, or both, but might be worthy of consideration.Scott
Comment
-
... continuation with chassis number hunt! This time, I will pick from the many photos which do not show any number plates. I intend to start with the easy ones! Could someone perhaps help me with these? I would also appreciate if anyone wanted to keep our "unidentified VINs" up to date.
Number 61. White, CPP bodied, was a publicity stunt a while ago, was it just a white wrap?
Comment
-
Nice analysis amzamz! On the gap between 070 and 079 I thought a lot and think it must be related with swapping the CPP chassis and bodywork for the Karmann chassis and bodywork. Spyker probably wanted the Karmann chassis to have VIN numbers after the CPP chassis and had to estimate how many CPP would still built? Not sure though, just a thought. Spyker had to use some crash cars as well for US certification so these are also missing from the VIN list. Possibly some very shy collector cars as well that are never spotted but maybe will in time? Would be nice to have an official VIN list to see how we're doing.Winning on sunday, selling on monday!
Comment
-
I think number 63 and 64 are both RHD CPP Spyders, who both have a Ruby Red interior. Both have license plates with Spyker, so I think this is the same car. Interesting car as I never saw it in white but reminds me of this unknwn car: http://www.spykerowner.com/forum/sho...ilver+ruby+rhdWinning on sunday, selling on monday!
Comment
Comment