2009/2010 production

[F Spider]

I've read an interesting article in Sports Car Market by Michael Sheehan, a well known Ferrari expert.

This has not a direct link to Spyker, but I thought that the new strategy of Ferrari was interesting enough, to put it in the main section.

A big Ferrari dealer in the US received about 50 new cars in 2008.
For 2009 on top of the normal allocation there would be 25 California's added for a total of 75 cars, a 50% increase for the dealers.

A simplified breakdown was supposed to be like this:

2 - 612
8 - 599 GTB
6 - 430 Scuderia
7 - 430 Coupe
23- 430 Spider
25- California
75 total, of which 40 are 430's

The last 8 months everything changed and Ferrari changed their allocations for 2009

2 - 612
8 - 599 GTB
5 - 430 (probably only Scuderia, and Scuderia Spider)
25- California
40 total

From these numbers I conclude that production of the normal F430 and F430 Spider has already stopped, or at least, Ferrari is not shipping any more F430's to the US. The introduction of the new F450 will be in October, with the start of sales in 2010. Production of the California is just going to continue as planned.

I find it an interesting way of trying to get value back in an oversold market.

[AX lover]

Indeed interesting! So maybe it wasn't so bad that Spyker production was pretty low for some time

And if Ferrari (and other brands) cut back production drasticaly for 2009 that will be great for Spyker because they can sell more cars.

How do you guys think Spyker's production will look like for 2009?

My guess is:

Q1 = Only C8 Laviolette LM85 (max 20?)
Q2 = Last C8 Laviolette LM85's + startup production C8 Aileron (starts in May)
Q3 + Q4 = Full pull production C8 Aileron

2010
Q1 = C8 Aileron + first preproduction D8 P2P's
Q2 = C8 Aileron + startup D8 P2P
Q3 = C8 Aileron + full production D8 P2P
Q4 = C8 Aileron + D8 P2P + preproduction C8 Aileron Spyder?

[SpykerOwner]

A simplified breakdown was supposed to be like this:

2 - 612
8 - 599 GTB
6 - 430 Scuderia
7 - 430 Coupe
23- 430 Spider
25- California
75 total, of which 40 are 430's

I am missing 4 F430s

[SpykerOwner]

Interesting article. The California was originally meant to boost Ferrari sales even further, but it is not unthinkable the new model is actually preventing Ferrari from shutting down the plant for a while (like Lamborghini).

[pterps]

Other conlusion may be that people who can afford an 612 and 599 don't (have to) worry about the crisis? The numbers of these models stayed the same!

[F Spider]

Other conlusion may be that people who can afford an 612 and 599 don't (have to) worry about the crisis? The numbers of these models stayed the same!

I think that the dealers have much choice in the allocation. They have to sell the 612's, even if they don't want to.

[Wouter]

Indeed interesting! So maybe it wasn't so bad that Spyker production was pretty low for some time

And if Ferrari (and other brands) cut back production drasticaly for 2009 that will be great for Spyker because they can sell more cars.

How do you guys think Spyker's production will look like for 2009?

My guess is:

Q1 = Only C8 Laviolette LM85 (max 20?)
Q2 = Last C8 Laviolette LM85's + startup production C8 Aileron (starts in May)
Q3 + Q4 = Full pull production C8 Aileron

If the sales figures allow it, 2009 is going to be a great year. Reading the Q4 press release I conclude that only 2 of the 24 LM85’s have been built in Q4 ’08 and the C8 Aileron is still in its final development fase in G.B. The introduction of the LM85 most also have something to do with the oderbook…withs is probably a bit low. A seven year live cycle for a super sports car is not to bad I think. The success of the C8 Aileron is going to be very important for the company. I haven’t got a clue how many Aileron’s already have been sold. Let's hope Geneva generates lot’s and lot’s of orders...

If Spyker manages to build the remaing 22 LM85’s and 2 or 3 C8 Aileron’s in Q1 ‘09 that would be a great result I think. Spyker did not mentioned a production goal in it’s latest press release but as Victor Muller mentioned during the L.A. Motor Show press conference that they are aiming at a figure close to 100.

If Spyker manages to enter production of the C8 Aileron in May I think we could expect a drop in production in Q2 due to the normal start up issues. Let say 10 or 12 Aileron’s in Q2 must be considered a good result…
If every thing works out the way it should be production numbers of +30 Aileron’s in Q3 and Q4 should be needed tot reach the aimed 100.

I’m also just speculating of course but this is my prediction

[Wouter]

Spyker expects the D8 P2P to enter production at the latest in January 2010. I don’t know how ambitions this goal is. If the D8 P2P enters production in Q2 2010 I would be happy. I won’t be surprised if Spyker is aiming to unveil the P2P at the International Motor Show in Dubai, in potential the biggest market for the car. If the Aileron is in full production in Q2 of 2010 I really don’t know where Spykercars is going to manufacture the D8? In G.B.?

Besides manufactures of big volume brands also brands as Aston Martin and Bentley are cutting production. Spyker operates in such a niche market with a relatively small but stable volume the effects of the worldwide drop in sales, fingers crossed , will only have a minor effect on Spykercars. I am very curious if the automatic gearbox will deliver the expected increase in sales.

I think that the greatest risk this year will be the parts suppliers. If one of them go bust it will have a very serious impact on production. Manufactures as Spyker normally use a “just in time” stock policy, to keep the cost of stock as low as possible. With the current financial climate this policy posses a great risk. Victor Muller has proven not to be shy of taking risk in the past….needles to say, that’s why he is the entrepreneur…I do admire the management decisions and risks Victor Muller has taken to build Spykercars and have read his interviews/articles with great interest. Spykercars has been a very interesting company to follow and probably will be..